The hottest factor of RMB appreciation dominates t

2022-08-09
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RMB appreciation factors dominate the future trend of plastics

as may enters, Liansu's market has not changed with the rise of temperature, so will Liansu maintain its current weak market in the future

there is no doubt that crude oil will continue to break through the upward trend.

since the beginning of the year, the negative correlation between crude oil and the US dollar index has begun to weaken, and this phenomenon has also appeared between gold and the US dollar. There may be two reasons behind this:

first, the economic situation in Europe and the United States has substantially improved. The demand factor of economic recovery for currency and bulk commodities exceeds the liquidity driving factor dominated in the early stage, which can be seen from the economic data released by the United States in the past two months. The pace of the recovery of the real economy is no longer hesitant. In particular, the US stock market recently got rid of the weak situation at the beginning of the year, and rose all the way, boosting the market's confidence in the US economy. Although the news that Goldman Sachs was investigated a few days ago dealt a heavy blow to the U.S. stock market, the Goldman Sachs incident itself should be just a small episode, which is more likely to involve the domestic political game in the United States

second, the spread of the European debt crisis has eased the market's anxiety about policy exit. Greece has reached a 120 billion euro financial rescue plan with the IMF and the European Central Bank to alleviate the debt crisis, and the German government is also expected to implement rescue to Greece. However, these may only be the beginning of the whole rescue plan. Iberian countries such as Spain and Portugal will not rule out similar applications in the future. From the perspective of the impact on market psychology, the European debt crisis sent a signal that "the economic recovery situation is difficult to be optimistic, and the timing of policy exit is too early", which will undoubtedly alleviate the fear of policy exit in the early stage of the market to a great extent, and strengthen the bullish sentiment of related commodity prices and asset prices. In addition, the rescue of euro zone countries must further release more liquidity. Due to the relatively large proportion of the euro exchange rate in the compilation of the dollar index, the rise of the dollar index over the past few months stems from the expectation of the depreciation of the euro, and the maintenance of the U.S. government's weak dollar policy will inevitably lead to the continued decline of the real value of the dollar in the medium term. It is not difficult to understand the recent phenomenon of the weakening of the negative correlation between the dollar index and commodity prices

the substantial improvement of the U.S. economy and the imminent launch of the euro zone's massive aid program for Greece will inevitably lead to the continued rise in commodity prices within the dollar pricing system, especially the prices of gold and crude oil, which are expected to reach new highs after breaking through the previous consolidation range

since May, gasoline consumption has entered the peak season. EIA has recently raised its crude oil consumption forecast for many times, and the possible hurricane weather in summer will also have a certain impact on offshore crude oil supply. In addition, in the early stage, there was a major accident on the oil drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico, and the U.S. government has suspended offshore oil exploitation in some areas and conducted a general survey of other existing equipment. It is reported that the accident had an impact on oil tankers arriving in the Gulf of Mexico, and the shipping schedule of some oil tankers was delayed. Therefore, no matter from the perspective of financial attributes or commodity attributes, there is no suspense about the future breakthrough of crude oil, which is expected to be close to $90 in the next months

the domestic economy is steadily improving, and the bulk commodity prices may have been overdrawn.

China's economic data in April recently released show that the PMI index is as high as 55.7%, with a month on month increase of 0.6 percentage points, maintaining at more than 50% for 14 consecutive months, the finished product inventory index fell by 2.1 percentage points month on month, the new export order index was unchanged from the previous month to 54.5%, and the backlog order index increased by 1.4 percentage points month on month to 53.4%. This series of data shows that social demand has increased steadily and the economic situation has continued to improve. However, since social demand is so strong, why is the recent plastic market so weak? In fact, not only plastics, but also many industries have seen similar situations. Statistics show that in the past two months, although the prices of finished products have increased significantly, the overall price level of industrial raw materials has weakened anti seasonally. Taking the "PTA polyester chemical fiber textile" industrial chain as an example, these materials can also be widely used in the infrastructure of electric vehicles. From the downstream to the upstream, the recent price rise is getting smaller and smaller, the PTA price is almost flat or even soft, the polyester rise is small, and the chemical fiber and fabric rise significantly

similarly, this phenomenon is also very obvious in the plastic market. Statistics show that the import volume of polyethylene plastic in March reached a record 865800 tons, and the domestic supply reached 1.71 million tons; If considering the delay of import shipping schedule during the Spring Festival in February, the average domestic monthly supply of plastics from December last year to March this year exceeded 1.45 million tons, an increase of 200000-300000 tons over the normal level in previous years. In terms of demand, as the coal, electricity and oil transportation prices are adjusted to zero on the whole; The rise has led to an increase in the operating costs of enterprises, and some enterprises have a headache about the current high raw material prices. Research shows that some agricultural film production enterprises in North China have begun to use recycled materials as raw materials for production

these phenomena show that the overall restocking process in 70mm years has driven the price of raw materials to rise sharply, and the expectation of rising prices has driven the inventory level to a certain extent higher than the normal level, which shows that the price of raw materials has exceeded the affordability of the real economy in the early stage, that is, overdraft in advance is good. This means that even if the real economy continues to be stable and good, the driving force formed by its demand for raw materials cannot be reflected in the continued upward price, because the market needs to absorb the excess inventory caused by the expected decline in price rise

RMB appreciation may become a key factor

some institutions have found that before the boots of RMB appreciation have landed, the appreciation expectation has led many enterprises to lack confidence in the future and take a cautious attitude, which may also be one of the factors leading to the recent "external strength and internal weakness" of commodity prices. It is reported that some transnational arbitrage funds have adopted the strategy of "throwing in and buying out" to bet on the appreciation of the RMB

although the government has indicated on many occasions that the RMB will maintain a stable exchange rate, the actual situation may not be as simple as the statement from the perspective of the overall economic performance. First, the pressure of imported inflation is increasing, which has been fully reflected in the recent iron ore negotiations. The above analysis has pointed out that the crude oil price may break through and rise in the coming months, which will inevitably worsen the already urgent inflationary pressure in China. The national development and Reform Commission has raised the oil price in April, and faced the price adjustment window again in May. It is expected that there is no suspense about the further rise of oil price. Secondly, under the expectation of appreciation, the pressure of international hot money influx is also increasing, which is bound to further strengthen domestic inflation expectations. It may be difficult to effectively control inflation by relying only on the regulation of domestic monetary policy

however, at present, exports are still weak and the economy is still in the critical period of recovery, RMB appreciation will cause great harm to the domestic economy. Whether, when and how to appreciate are a series of uncertain factors, which may become the key "weight" affecting the fragile balance of the current commodity market. As for plastics, if the exchange rate is stable in the future, with the gradual dissipation of the expectation of RMB appreciation, it is more likely to continue to rise driven by the cost of crude oil; If the appreciation of RMB comes, plastic will be worried, and its high social inventory may cause large-scale selling

note: the reprinted contents are indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information. This industry has undergone a long development in resin and coating, which does not mean that it agrees with its views or confirms the authenticity of its contents

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